China industry present situation and future development trend analysis
Recently, sponsored by the China nonferrous metals industry association LiYe branch 2016 lithium industry BBS held in qinghai xining. Bing-xin li, deputy secretary-general of China nonferrous metals industry association LiYe branch on the BBS to share the situation of lithium industry running situation and future development trend analysis, for 2015 reason lithium price rise rapidly, lithium resources consumption and the present status of supply did briefly, and analyzes the lithium industry development trend in the future.
Lithium price rise quickly, 2015, 2015 industrial lithium carbonate average price 47700 yuan/ton, up 34%; Battery grade lithium carbonate average price 56700 yuan/ton, up 41%; Lithium hydroxide average price 50000 yuan/ton, up 25% from a year earlier, battery grade lithium carbonate price has gone up three times a year.
Bing-xin li think lithium price reason is mainly because the new energy automotive industry driven lithium consumption fast growth. From 2012 began to expand rapidly, new energy vehicles industry also drives the batteries and battery materials industry rapid expansion (lithium carbonate accounts for 10-20% of materials, only 6-8% of the cost of the battery)
At present China has become a veritable lithium consumption power, according to LiYe branch of statistics, in 2014 China's consumption reached 65800 tons, lithium global consumption of 162000 tons, accounting for 40% of the world's total. Lithium in 2015, China's consumption of 2015 tons, up 20% from a year earlier.
According to the U.S. geological survey (USGS) 2015 report said the world has 39.5 million tons of lithium resources (metal), lithium reserves of 14 million tons. According to the resource or, lithium carbonate equivalent of about 200 million tons, the global annual output 160000 tons, can meet the production needs of more than 100 years. Among them, the lithium resources in China of 5.4 million tons, lithium reserves of 3.2 million tons, and has good salt lake lithium resources.
Bing-xin li is expected in 2016, and increase supply lithium resources is limited, consider other new capacity of the existing planning delivery plan (salt lake, mining), total capacity of about 230000 tons, but due to the lithium resources supply particularity, new mine construction cycle generally in three to five years, its new salt lake development cycle longer, up to 5 to 7 years, so the new capacity production progress is expected to slow.
According to the observation in 2015 lithium price rise quickly, industrial grade lithium carbonate, 2015 year average price 47700 yuan/ton, up 34%; Battery grade lithium carbonate average price 56700 yuan/ton, up 41%; Lithium hydroxide average price 50000 yuan/ton, up 25% from a year earlier. In 2015, battery grade lithium carbonate prices quadrupled.
Bing-xin li also said that a slight increase in the fourth quarter of this year the lithium industry supply, under the condition of market to restore calm, price will be slightly consolidation, downward space is limited.